Donald Trump could overturn California’s petrol, diesel car ban

US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to overturn California’s ban on new petrol and diesel light vehicles from showrooms by 2035, just months after the proposal was approved.

In August 2022, California proposed the ban on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in a bid to reduce carbon emissions, with transportation responsible for approximately 50 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions and 80 per cent of air pollutants in the state.

While plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are exempt from the ban they must be capable of 80km of real-world electric-only driving, and comprise no more than 20 per cent of a brand’s total sales. The rest of the vehicles must be electric vehicles (EVs).

The proposal was finally signed off by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) last week, and the framework will be adopted by 11 other states including New York.

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However, it may be short-lived, as Mr Trump has claimed he will revoke any approvals granted by the EPA to California, having been critical of the outgoing Biden Administration’s vehicle policies.

This includes axing the federal tax credit for EVs, worth up to US$7500 (A$11,625), and cutting off support for charging stations, instead sending the funds to the “national defense supply chain and critical infrastructure”.

Mr Trump is also reportedly planning to wind back the EPA’s emissions and fuel economy standards to 2019 levels, undoing the recent work of the government department.

The EPA has a target for EVs to account for between 35 to 56 per cent of sales on the new vehicle market by 2032, however this is not an enforcement or mandate, rather an outline of what carmakers will need to do to meet wider emissions regulations across their fleets.

This target was previously as high as 67 per cent before being walked back in April this year, following cooling demand for EVs.

In the lead up to the US election, Mr Trump falsely claimed the US government has mandates which will require EV sales to reach 100 per cent, promising to repeal these if he was elected.

Last week, Reuters reported that if the 2019 emissions regulations are revived, vehicles will on average be allowed to emit about 25 per cent more than under the 2025 regulations, while using up to 15 per cent more fuel.

John Bozzella, president and CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation – a US lobby group for the nation’s carmakers – criticised California’s ICE ban and said it expects “President Trump will revoke the waiver in 2025.”

“We’ve said the country should have a single, national standard to reduce carbon in transportation, but the question about the general authority of California to establish a vehicle emissions program – and for other states to follow that program – is ultimately something for policymakers and the courts to sort out.

“Our concerns: first, California’s Advanced Clean Cars II is an actual electrification sales mandate and ultimately a ban on the sale of new gas-powered vehicles.

“Second, most of the states that follow California are NOT ready for these requirements. Achieving the sales mandates under current market realities will take a miracle. There needs to be balance and some states should exit the program.

“Third, automakers can produce electrified vehicles, but there’s a huge gap between these EV sales mandates and a customer’s (reasonable) expectation they can still choose what kind of vehicle to drive.”

California’s ICE ban proposal previously included hydrogen fuel cells vehicles (FCEVs) to account for more than 10 per cent of new cars sold in 2035, however sales of the niche technology have been declining in the state.

In the first half of last year, the LA Times reports 1765 FCEVs were sold on the way to the year’s total of 2968. In the first half of this year, that number has shrunk to just 298.

The publication attributes the decline to the stalling of California’s hydrogen rollout plans, which are currently well behind the initial plan of 200 refuelling stations up and running by 2025.