Liberal polling puts doubt over Labor’s Jane Kelsbie retaining Warren-Blackwood at 2025 election

Details of internal polling from WA’s Liberal Party have backed up recent reports that first-term Labor MP Jane Kelsbie is likely to lose Warren-Blackwood at the next State election.

The MLA ousted veteran Nationals WA former leader Terry Redman at the 2021 poll, riding a landslide of public support for then-premier Mark McGowan.

But the latest figures revealed by The West Australian show the seat, which includes all of the Shire of Augusta-Margaret River, would probably go back to the Liberal Party.

While the Liberals have fielded former candidate and ex-Shire of Manjimup president Wade de Campo, Warren-Blackwood is considered a traditional Nationals stronghold and set to return to newcomer Bevan Eatts.

While polling still shows Labor winning with a healthy majority, the Government’s margin has halved since 2021, with seven months to go until election day.

Economic pessimism, fuelled by cost-of-living pressures, was the main driver of the changing political fortunes for the Liberals, with almost half of voters feeling worse off than a year ago.

The polling revealed Mr McGowan remained the most popular figure in politics — a year after his bombshell retirement.

Pundits said this underscored Labor’s failure in leadership under Mr McGowan’s successor, Roger Cook.

If replicated on election day, the forecast would leave a combined Liberal and National Opposition with 17 seats.

In that scenario, the Government would lose all of its 2021 gains bar one seat.