Unprecedentedly warm seasons negatively impacts Southern Forests’ diverse agricultural landscape

Unprecedented warm seasons last year have had a hit effect on Southern Forest food producers, with cherry, truffle, avocado, apple and kiwi fruit producers noticing the greatest impact. The region experienced a very dry summer last year which was followed by a warm winter with fewer frost events, reducing chill accumulation opportunities for some horticultural crops. Several items have seen or will see a reduce yield loss at harvest, potentially driving up the prices for consumers. Cherry producers are reporting up to a 90 per cent yield loss while truffle producers have noted quality concerns, and avocados are ripening up to a month early. Gold kiwi fruit — a relatively new crop in the region — and apples are also presenting irregular behaviours, giving growers cause for concern of yield loss come harvest in Autumn next year. Southern Forests Food Council chair Arthur Wilson said while farmers are accustomed to some variability, this season’s challenges have been unprecedented. “It’s an incredibly challenging time for our producers, but we are committed to working alongside them, promoting sustainability and championing their efforts in the face of adversity,” he said. “We encourage shoppers to help support local farmers wherever possible when making food choices too.” SFFC vice-chair Monica Radomiljac said there was a chance reduced yield may drive a price increase. “If there becomes a shortage in the market these prices are always driven by supply and demand and consumers may notice a difference,” she said. Cherries Newton Orchard owner Harvey Giblett said Newton’s cherry crop was half of what’s normal “at best”, while Cherry Lane Fields — one of the biggest cherry producers in Western Australia — are expecting up to 70 per cent reduced yield. “Cherry crops can be biennial depending on the variety but normally the variance is not as severe,” Mr Giblett said. “Cherries traditionally need more chill hours than other fruit but we’ve just not had enough. We’re coming off an unusually hot summer and autumn too, that’s obviously had some impact,” he said. Mr Giblett said he is confident the 2024 yield loss is a rare occurrence, and said he expects next year to return to a full crop. Truffles The gourmet produce was negatively impacted by the reduced chill hours however, Australian Truffle Traders owner Gavin Booth said he is still optimistic of the future potential of the truffle industry, despite noting a yield loss and truffle rot. “What’s amazing, even though WA suffered 20 to 40 per cent losses, we still produced 90 per cent of Australia’s truffles. It goes to show the level of resilience of the WA truffle industry,” he said. “I’m still investing in my business, and I’m still buoyed by the future potential.” Stonebarn Truffles also reported a yield loss, estimated at around 30 per cent. “We had a much shorter season, finishing almost a month earlier than expected,” Abbe Rees of Stonebarn said. “It was a tough year all round . . . however, we have had our shelf-stable products to fall back on,” she said. Avocados Avocado producers across the region have reported early ripening, with colouring seen months ahead of the typical March/April timeline. Some producers in the Manjimup area have also reported small yield losses due to the above average temperatures, which left on-farm water storage low through autumn and early winter. Applewood Orchard owner Vic Grozotis said deteriorating water quality in Manjimup has also impacted yield. “The compromised water quality in Manjimup results in us picking early however, this is an ongoing issue rather than a direct impact of the 2024 weather patterns,” he said. He said he is optimistic next season will be more fruitful, as the region experienced a “kind, gentle spring”. “If all fruit sets, we could see a record crop in the Manjimup and Pemberton area,” he said. “We are anticipating an upward price move from January onwards also, purely because there will be less available at that time.” Appadene Park owner Tom Winfield said he has noticed fruit drop and early changes of colour however, said he expects the yield to remain “on par” with last year. “Fruit quality is good however, we did have to strip pick instead of exposure pick this year,” he said. Mr Winfield said the fruit set is looking good for next year “at this stage”. Apples Mr Grozotis said apples were a mixed bag this year with some varieties more affected by lack of chilling hours than others. “We are anticipating smaller yields come picking in February but we haven’t done a full assessment yet,” he said. ”The biggest concern is if we have another winter as we just had . . . we’ll really have some real issues to address in the future.” NewLeaf Orchard owner Dean Baker — who receives many of the apple bi-products from other growers in the region for his cider and juice ranges — said the weather effects vary across producers however, he said most orchards are expecting a 10 per cent reduced yield. “Our volumes will definitely be down,” he said. “There are not just volume concerns, we anticipate harvest problems as well with fruit ready at irregular times. “Overall, things are definitely changing in apple landscape. It’s a hard industry to be in at the moment. Avocados are our future proofing method.” Kiwis Lake Janis Farm owner Dean Ryan — one of only two early adopters of gold kiwi in Western Australia to establish the vines — said they are seeing very uneven fruiting and sizing. “The warm weather has resulted in bud burst being inconsistent,” he said. “There were five weeks between the initial bud burst and the last. “There are some areas that are looking good, some that aren’t, some it would be magnificent. “Where the average for sizing is 133 grams each, this year we’re looking at 110 to 115 grams.” Mr Ryan said last season he forecasted yield to increase in 2024 but he now expects similar yield results come harvest in autumn. “Gold kiwis are a very technical fruit,” he said. “There is probably stuff we can do to help yield increase in future,” he said. “We’re taking a look at soil health to see if there is a positive impact.” What now Despite the unprecedented unpredictability of the weather, most producers have remained positive. The State Government and Southern Forests Food Council said they continue to support producers, while producers continue to invest in various methods to improve yield and produce quality. The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development spokesperson said the department has been monitoring the impact of the conditions on the Southern Forests, which they have used to inform several regional grant schemes, water management decisions, forums, and research — with a strong focus on apples and avocados. Ms Radomiljac said the SFFC continues to hear priorities from producers and send feedback up the line, connecting producers with relevant resources and opportunities to build drought and climate resilience. “Agricultural producers and businesses are generally optimistic but always accept that they are at the mercy of the weather and climate,” she said. If the climate continues to warm, Ms Radomiljac said the seasonality of lots of fruits and vegetables available might be impacted, potentially driving producers to change to crops more suited to the current climate conditions.