State election 2021: Labor close in on Warren-Blackwood, Churchlands, North West Central and Nedlands seats

In a stunning 700 vote turnaround this afternoon, Labor candidate Jane Kelsbie has surged into an unexpected lead in the seat of Warren-Blackwood — placing the future of one-time Nationals leader Terry Redman in doubt. And in Churchlands, Liberal MP Sean L’Estrange’s lead over Labor’s Christine Tonkin is slowly evaporating, down to just 129 votes in latest counting this afternoon. Ms Kelsbie, a Denmark resident and chief executive of not-for-profit training organisation Worklink WA, has now established a 471 vote lead over Mr Redman with three quarters of the count completed. Now expected to win the seat, Ms Kelsbie trailed by 270 votes last night, with ABC election guru Antony Green crediting the unexpected turnaround to a batch of 2000 pre-poll votes that fell 67 per cent in Labor’s favour. “The high Green and Labor vote in the batch compared to the Nationals makes me think there were a lot of Margaret River votes in that batch,” Mr Green said. If Warren-Blackwood does fall to Labor, it would be the first time Labor wins the seat since its creation in 1996. Churchlands remains on a knife edge with three quarters of the vote counted, Mr L’Estrange’s 206 vote lead last night incrementally dwindling as postal and early voting ballots are counted. If the Liberals are unable to retain the seat they will have just two Lower House MPs — Libby Mettam and David Honey — with Churchlands falling to Labor for the first time since it was contested in 1996. Two other seats remain in play this afternoon, with incumbent Nationals MP Vince Catania 254 votes ahead of Labor’s Cherie Sibosado in North West Central and expected to hold on with 63 per cent of ballots counted. Nedlands also remains mathematically in play but Liberal MP Bill Marmion is 427 votes behind Labor’s Katrina Stratton — threatening to turn the seat red for the first time in its 71-year history.